Latam FX:keeping the original CLP and PEN forecasts unchanged
摘要： Thisisfollow-upofthelastpublicationonAndeanFX;link:LatamFX:AdjustingAndeanforecasts(totheupside)Ourm
This is follow-up of the last publication on Andean FX; link: Latam FX: AdjustingAndean forecasts (to the upside)
Our models suggest the CLP and PEN are now at short term equilibrium. Thesecurrencies have been in the oversold camp in 2015for two reasons: (a) the strong USmomentum across the board in 2015and (b) both the activity slowdown and therenminbi devaluation in China, which hurt terms of trade.
Despite having reached theoretical fair value in the short term, we still see thedistribution of PEN and CLP prices tilted to the upside for two reasons: China and astructural weaker US dollar will continue to have a positive effect on copper andindustrial metals prices. Lastly, in a world which is in an easing camp, EM flows andcarry trade are set to be favoured back again.
We decided to keep the original forecast unchanged: expecting USDCLP to trade by670in Q22016, 665(715) in Q32016, 655in Q42016, 660in Q12017, and 650in Q22017.
Likewise, we forecast USDPEN at 3.27in Q22016, 3.30in Q32016, 3.25in Q42016,3.35in Q12017, and 3.25in Q22017.
inQ32016,inQ42016,inQ12017,Thisisfollow,upofthelastpublicationonAndeanFX
