STRATEGY:STOCK IDEAS FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SHANGHAI STOCK CONNECT (NORTHBOUND)

　　Not just about Shenzhen Connect. Although the current market focus in mainly on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the list of Shanghai-listed stocks eligible for investment by Hong Kong and overseas investors is also likely to be expanded, according to comments by regulators in the past few months.

　　Likely to cover all Shanghai-listed companies. Currently there are 567 eligible stocks for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (northbound). If the list is going to be expanded, we believe it is likely to cover the entire 1,100+ stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

　　Eight companies recommended by our A-share team. In the potential enlarged list of eligible Shanghai-listed stocks, our A-share research team are recommending eight companies, based on recommendations in the past two months: (i) Tibet Summit Industrial (600338.CH), (ii) Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical (603111.CH), (iii) Geo-Jade Petroleum (600759.CH), (iv) Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development (603199.CH), (v) East China Construction (600629.CH), (vi) Hangxiao Steel Structure (600477.CH), (vii) ARTS Group (603017.CH), and (viii) Shanghai Trendzone Construction Decoration (603030.CH).

　　(1) Tibet Summit Industrial [600338.CH]: The Company manufactures zinc ingots, zinc sulfide, zinc oxide, indium and sulfuric acid. Because of the production suspension of some zinc mines, it is expected that there will be about a 1.5m tonne shortage of zine sup-ply this year, which will offer strong support for zinc prices. In addition, the Company’s production volume is projected to increase by 75% this year to 0.14m tonnes. Net profit in 2016E and 2017E is expected to reach RMB610m (281% growth) and RMB693m (14% growth), respectively. The stock is included in our A-share team’s model portfolio for June 2016.

　　(2) Nanjing Kangni Mechanical & Electrical [603111.CH]: The Company manufactures door systems for rail transport, and pro-vides other rail transportation equipment, ancillary products and technical services. Its revenue from door systems for rail transport grew 26.7% in 2015, and its share of China’s urban rail market already exceeds 50%. It has the potential to gain further market share in high-speed rail door systems, as the Sino-foreign JVs still account for nearly 70% of the market. Revenue of its new energy vehicle component business also grew >200% last year from a low base, reaching RMB160m. As the Company was approved as a supplier of SAIC Motor and Geely (0175.HK) in 2015, revenue growth in this segment is likely to remain high in 2016. In addition, the Compa-ny is developing its precision manufacturing equipment business, which may become its third major business segment. Our A-share team is projecting its 2016E/2017E/2018E EPS at RMB0.81/1.06/1.37, respectively.

　　(3) Geo-Jade Petroleum [600759.CH]: The Company is a mid-sized oil and gas producer in China and is planning to expand its business overseas, leveraging China’s “One-Belt One-Road” strategy. It aims to grow its annual production to >5m tonnes within three years. It is planning to raise RMB15.2bn in equity to acquire overseas oil and gas assets at a low level. If we assume the deal will be completed in October 2016, its 2016E/2017E/2018E annual production will be 1.15m/4m/5m tonnes, respectively. On a fully diluted basis, our A-share team forecasts its 2016E/2017E/2018E EPS to be RMB0.02/0.34/0.79. Our average Brent crude price as-sumption for 2016E/2017E/2018E is US$42/50/60 per barrel.

　　(4) Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development [603199.CH]: The Company is involved in capital management, travel services, tour-ism product development and management, new tourism projects, and the development of new attractions, tourist information and other related businesses with good development prospects. One of its main focuses, Mount Jiuhua, is one of the four sacred moun-tains of Chinese Buddhism. The Company recorded recurring net profit growth of 10.25% in 2015, and we continue to expect healthy growth in 2016 thanks to an improved transportation network. High-speed rail connecting Beijing-Fuzhou and Nanjing-Anqing com-menced operations in June and December 2015, respectively. In addition, flights connecting Jinhuashan Airport and Shenzhen Air-port officially commenced in July 2015. As a result, the Company’s Q1 2016 revenue and net profit surged 22.1% and 85% year-on-year (YoY), respectively. Our A-share team is conservatively forecasting its 2016E EPS to reach RMB0.62, up from RMB0.58 in 2015.