Asia Chart of the Week:Nope,false signal

　　So, we published a chart earlier this week that caused a bit of excitement amongour readers. It shows a spike in the new order-to-inventory ratio for emerging Asia(based on the latest crop of PMIs). This, ordinarily, points to an acceleration inindustrial output in the region. Trouble is, as helpful as the indicator often proves,at times it can send false signals. And this is probably one of those times. In fact,look closely and it quickly becomes clear that the rise in the new order-to-inventorymeasure is largely due to a drop in the latter, and not a rise in the former. True, youmight still expect some improvement in production in coming months as stocksare replenished. However, without a convincing pick-up in new orders, the bouncewill prove decidedly short-lived. In fact, another interpretation is entirely possible:producers may have allowed inventory to fall in anticipation of weaker demandahead. In short, don’t get too excited about the spike in the new order-to-inventoryratio. Growth can’t be sustained by restocking alone.